Wednesday, June 3, 2009

J–curve

The J–curve explains why the trade position does not improve soon after the weakening of a currency. Most import/export orders are taken months in advance. Immediately after a currency’s value drops, the volume of imports remains about the same, but the prices in terms of the home currency rise. On the other hand, the value of the domestic exports remains the same, and the difference in values worsens the trade balance until the imports and exports adjust to the new exchange rates.

Exchange rates are an important consideration when making international investment decisions. The money invested overseas incurs an exchange rate risk.

When an investor decides to "cash out," or bring his money home, any gains could be magnified or wiped out depending on the change in the exchange rates in the interim. Thus, changes in exchange rates can have many repercussions on an economy:
Affects the prices of imported goods
Affects the overall level of price and wage inflation
Influences tourism patterns
May influence consumers’ buying decisions and investors’ long-term commitments.

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